Economic Confrontation Rises to the Top
The World Economic Forum (WEF) has identified rising economic clashes between major powers — from tariffs to sanctions — as the most serious threat to global stability in 2026. Its latest Global Risks Report, released ahead of the WEF’s annual Davos meeting, surveyed more than 1,300 leaders and experts from business, government, academia, and civil society.
Geoeconomic confrontation now ranks above misinformation, societal polarisation, extreme weather, and even armed conflict. Half of respondents expect a turbulent or stormy world over the next two years, up sharply from 36% last year, while just 9% foresee stability. Looking further ahead, most experts predict prolonged instability over the next decade. WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi called the report an early warning system, emphasizing that while risks are high, “none of these risks are a foregone conclusion.”
Short-Term Risks and Economic Pressures
Geoeconomic confrontation not only topped the likelihood rankings but also led in severity for the next two years, jumping eight positions from last year. State-based armed conflict ranked second for 2026 but dropped to fifth over the two-year outlook. The report highlights how escalating rivalries threaten supply chains, global markets, and international cooperation.
Recent trade policies, including tariffs imposed by the United States, have disrupted global commerce and strained both business and household budgets. Economic risks showed the largest increase overall, with concerns over potential downturns, inflation, mounting debt, and asset bubbles climbing significantly. The WEF warns that these pressures, combined with geopolitical tensions, could trigger a new phase of market volatility.
Long-Term Risks: Technology, Society, and the Environment
Beyond economic threats, the report points to other pressing challenges. Misinformation and disinformation rank second in near-term risks, and cyber insecurity is sixth. Concerns over AI have surged, jumping from 30th to fifth in the ten-year outlook, reflecting worries about its impact on jobs, societies, and security. Societal polarisation and inequality remain high on the list, with inequality noted as the most interconnected risk for the second year in a row.
While environmental risks fall slightly in short-term rankings, they dominate long-term concerns. Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical changes to Earth systems are seen as the most severe threats over the next decade. Three-quarters of respondents expect a stormy environmental outlook, the most negative of any risk category.
Zahidi concluded that global cooperation is essential, saying: “The challenges highlighted in this report — from geopolitical shocks and rapid technological change to climate instability and societal strife — underscore both the scale of potential perils and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next.”
